Paulson and Icahn.

If you are among the ninety-nine point nine per cent who missed out on the last big Paulson and Icahn trades of ‘07/08 then maybe you will get another shot at something similar in the Land Down Under.

In a study of nearly 1,000 Australian mortgage applications over the last twelve months, investment bank UBS found a significant increase in what it unapologetically refers to as ‘liar loans’ (i.e. loans that were extended on the basis of borrower imagination rather than fact).

According to the said survey, only two-thirds of respondents classified their submitted information as “completely factual and accurate,” down from 72% last year and 73% the year before. The bank estimates that AU$500 billion in “factually inaccurate” mortgages reside on Aussie bank balance sheets, lending to the conclusion that while household debt levels, elevated house prices and subdued income growth are well known, these findings suggest mortgagors are more stretched than the banks believe, implying losses in a downturn could be larger than the banks anticipate.

It is not hard to understand the temptation for borrowers to guild their data to secure a better deal. Australians are already leveraged to the gunnels.

Household debt as a percentage of income reached 189% as of year-end 2016. That stands as fourth highest in the world after Norway, the Netherlands, and Denmark, and greatly exceeds the 132.7% reached at the peak of the housing bubble in the United States.

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